Nevzat Kalkavan Us1917w Has Departed From Iãœâ€¡skenderun Port Again
CIA Managing director Burns subsequently went to Moscow to attempt and intimidate Putin into revoking troop buildup on Ukrainian border
[Russell Bentley, a Texan and author of this article, served in the Donbass army. His motivation was to fight fascism; he envisioned himself equally an heir to members of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain during the Spanish Civil State of war.
In role one, Bentley's provides an cess of the current tensions in the Ukraine and the character of the regime. Ranked as i of the about decadent governments in the earth, it is a monstrous creation of the U.S. empire guilty of large-scale state of war crimes.
In part two, Bentley discusses three potential military options for Russian federation. CAM'due south position on this disharmonize is to endorse the Minsk protocol, which focuses on a diplomatic settlement that offers the Eastern Ukrainian provinces considerable autonomy and could assist defuse tensions in the region.
The third military option discussed by Bentley—the Kyiv plan which would entail a Russian march on Kyiv—has three chief dangers: a) Ukrainian rightists and nationalists would mobilize against the Russians and pro-Russian forces, prompting a prolonged and devastating war that could be a quagmire for Russian federation (rather than a cakewalk, every bit Bentley suggests); b) a Russian invasion would potentially ignite Earth War III by cartoon in the U.S. and NATO; and c) it could even lead to the advent of nuclear war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to exist conscious of these dangers and intent on restraining hawkish elements within the Russian military—a good affair. At the same time, he has made it articulate that Russia will defend its interests and not exist pushed around.—Editors]
Part 1
On October 18th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to affirm U.S. support for Ukraine's war confronting its eastern provinces.
Since the showtime of the conflict in 2014, the United States has provided more than $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including $275 1000000 in armed services aid that has been announced in the last ten months nether President Joe Biden, a staunch champion of the war from its inception.
In early November, President Biden dispatched CIA Managing director William F. Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin about its troop buildup on the Ukraine border and to try and force it to back off. Secretary of State Antony Blinken followed upwards this past week by threatening Russia further in a joint printing conference in Washington with the Ukrainian Strange Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Ukraine, nevertheless, started the war following the Feb 2014 U.Southward. backed coup and carried out sustained state of war crimes.
These crimes include: a) the recent kidnapping and torture of a Russian armistice monitor in Lugansk; b) a recent attack on Staromaryevka, a settlement of 180 civilians in the de-militarized "Greyness Zone," which included the kidnapping of eight more unarmed civilians (who were also Russian citizens) by neo-Nazi terrorists; and c) the use of a Turkish Bayraktar assault drone confronting Donbass defence forces.
All this is in improver to the repeated shelling of noncombatant areas and infrastructure forth with a hardening of war rhetoric by the Kyiv authorities—with U.Southward. backing.
Readying for War
The chief hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine lies with the Minsk peace accords—which includes a provision that would allow for considerable autonomy for the eastern provinces. Predictably, the U.Due south. and Ukraine have shown little interest in adhering to the Minsk accords.
A no-fly zone is currently existence enforced by Russian federation in the airspace over the Donbass Commonwealth. Russia cannot recognize the Donetsk Democracy considering it would invite further U.S. sanctions and efforts at political isolation; the Donetsk Commonwealth is considered to be a renegade and the U.S. wants Russia to stay out of the war.
All military units of the DPR are currently on total combat alert. News reports and videos have appeared with Russian armor, including "hundreds" of heavy combat vehicles, and lxxx,000 to 90,000 troops, moving toward the Ukrainian border from the Bryansk, Voronezh and Rostov war machine districts. They are stationed at Novy Yerkovich—a four-60 minutes (250 km) drive to Kyiv—and forth the border near Kharkov, which lies a scant 30 kilometers from Russia'south border.
The troop buildup indicates that Russia is prepared to defend the Donbass region, which consists of virtually a million Russian citizens, and to potentially go further and liberate the part of Ukraine populated primarily by indigenous and Russian-speaking Russians.
The U.S./EU/NATO and Ukraine have all been pretending since 2014 that "Russia invaded Ukraine"—which it never did, though Ukrainian provocations make it more than likely that information technology soon will.
The war in Ukraine is not a Ukrainian civil state of war, nor is it a war between Russians and Ukrainians.
It is a state of war by resurgent international neo-Nazism, led by the The states against a people fighting for their autonomy backed past a reinvigorated Bang-up Ability, Russian federation, which wants to aggrandize its regional influence and counteract a legitimate security threat on its edge.
World Wink Bespeak
The fight in Donbass is one of the major world's flash points alongside Syria and Taiwan—where U.Due south. provocations threaten a major war with China.
If the West forces a military confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, information technology can be sure it volition face one with China over Taiwan simultaneously, neither of which it has any chance of winning. The Russians and Chinese have forged a partnership against Western, primarily U.S. aggression in the political, economical, and war machine spheres.
In Syria, the Turks (a NATO member) take in recent days directly threatened Russian military installations and troops; Should they actually deport out attacks on Russians in Syria, Russia has fabricated clear it will fire dorsum. Turkish troops are at present likewise on the ground in Ukraine, involved in combat operations against Donbass Defense Forces. This too, is a major and recent escalation.
Russian federation Prepares Its Saddle
But it is in Donbass that the situation is the most incendiary. In response to recent Ukrainian provocations and acts of terrorism, Russia is once more sending a military task force to its border with Ukraine, as it did in the leap of this twelvemonth, which stopped the planned U.S./Ukrainian offensive in its tracks.
After the offensive was scrubbed and the state of affairs de-escalated, the Russian troops withdrew from the border, but now over again take returned. This fourth dimension, indications are that the Russian formations are preparing to, at minimum, come into Donbass as peacekeepers, and perhaps go as far equally Kharkov and Odessa as Liberators. Maybe fifty-fifty to Kyiv.
Every bit the contempo words of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others have made clear, the Russians take now decided that the time for talking is over. There is an quondam proverb about Russians that applies perfectly well to the current situation—"The Russians are tiresome to saddle their horses, but when they do, they ride very, very fast."
Those horses have now been saddled.
Responsibleness to Protect (R2P)
If the Russians were to deepen their involvement in the Ukraine, they would not exist doing anything the U.Southward. and NATO have not washed themselves on more than one occasion.
Russia not just has therightto protect its citizens, information technology has the responsibility to practise and then, under international constabulary.
The "R2P" or "Responsibility to Protect" concept is based on three "pillars" –
Pillar I—Each individual state has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.
Pillar II—"States pledge to assist each other in their protection responsibilities."
Pillar III—If any land is "obviously failing" in its protection responsibilities, so states should accept collective action to protect the population" in a "timely and decisive response."
The UN Security Council has recognized and reaffirmed its commitment to the R2P in more than 80 resolutions. R2P equally such has the force of international constabulary.
The flip side of R2P is that it has been used as an alibi by the almost powerful countries for international war crimes and has resulted in the trampling of state sovereignty.
1 of the requirements of R2P is a United nations Security Council resolution approving its implementation. Though this volition never happen in the instance of Ukraine, there can be no dubiousness that Ukraine is, in fact, guilty of all the crimes that R2P was created to prevent, including a) war crimes, b) indigenous cleansing, and c) crimes against humanity, all of which have been, and continue to exist, committed by the Kyiv regime and its armed forces on a daily ground.
Russian intervention as such could be justified nether the R2P doctrine–though information technology is unlikely any NATO countries would acknowledge this.
Who Volition Terminate the Crimes Against Humanity?
The list of Kyiv'due south war crimes nether international police include: a) denial of water to well-nigh 2.5 million civilians in Crimea, b) the intentional targeting of civilians, journalists and medical personnel by artillery and snipers, c) random terror attacks on civilian areas, d) kidnapping, east) rape, f) torture and g) murder.
The Russians have over ii,000 specific war crimes cases open up against the Kyiv regime and its proxies, and more are being opened daily. Even the USA has opened war crimes investigations into at to the lowest degree 7 U.S. citizens who fought on the Kyiv side in the state of war.
These investigations into kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder are based on eyewitness, and video and forensic evidence. It will be the get-go fourth dimension the U.S. has prosecuted anyone under the War Crimes Act since its passage into police in 1996, a quarter century ago.
The Ukrainian military machine has as of this writing massacred at least 10,000 ethnic Russian civilians. Some were killed in house-to-house searches of civilian homes by paramilitary units wearing Nazi insignia on their uniforms. The Gestapo-like forces were searching for DPR and Russian passports and kidnapped those who had them.
The Russians cannot just stand up past and let this to happen. And neither should Americans.
Western intellectuals have been quick to invoke R2P to back up the bombing of Libya and Syria and a host of other Middle East countries every bit a cover for U.S. aggression. But how many will invoke the same doctrine when it tin exist applied to actually salve people from large-calibration indigenous cleansing and crimes confronting humanity—if Russia is the i doing the saving? Likely none.
Part 2: 3 Options for Russia
The way I see it, Russia currently has three principal options:
1) The Donbass Plan—The Russian Army tin roll into Donbass as peacekeepers, forth the electric current contact line from North of Lugansk to Mariupol, afterward publicly announcing it to the world a few hours ahead of time, in order to warn the Ukrainian military machine against resistance, and to explain and justify its humanitarian intervention to the "international community." They would announce that they come up in peace to stop the war crimes and the war, but that whatsoever military resistance from whatsoever source will be instantly eliminated, with the warning, "If you lot shoot at us, y'all die."
This ultimatum would be non-negotiable and backed upwards by Russia's full military power, including air and missile forces, and applied not simply to Ukrainian military units, but to U.S. and NATO troops in Ukraine and U.S. and NATO ships in the Blackness Body of water, as well as anywhere else. It tin and should besides include a reminder of Putin's previous quote that"Russian federation will respond to whatsoever attack past the destruction not but of the source of the attack, but also the source of the orders for the attack."
This selection would stop all terrorist attacks confronting Donbass, permanently and completely, and would hopefully give fourth dimension for a diplomatic solution based on new political realities to be found. Information technology would also not entail the taking of any territory under Ukraine control, only that which has long been declared under "Russian occupation".
One time information technology is seen that the Russians reallyare coming, and they actuallydo hateful business concern, it is unlikely that the Americans, NATO, or the Ukrainians will fire a shot. This is the least confrontational and least risky approach, equally information technology could be accomplished in a matter of 24 hours, with minimal bloodshed.
This may seem to exist a pragmatic solution, but it has the least chance of finding a political compromise or permanent solution, in either the short or long terms. And while it would stop state of war crimes and protect Russian citizens, it would neglect to resolve the overriding geopolitical problems Russia faces in Ukraine—argumentative war criminals on Russia's borders, the critical Crimean water security issue, foreign enemies in control of a neighboring state, etc. One advantage to this programme, however, is that could be used as a outset phase of the Novorussia Plan.
ii) The second option is The Novorussia Plan. Under this program, the Russians tin can liberate the surface area known as Novorussia, about one third of electric current Ukraine, with majority indigenous Russian populations, running along a line from Kharkov to Odessa (inclusive). This not simply protects the vast majority of indigenous Russians (non just those in Donbass) from Ukrainian depredations, it solves the critical humanitarian water crisis in Crimea, and cuts Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea. This will as well eviscerate all that is left of the Ukrainian economy and begin the process of the dismantling of Ukraine forth indigenous lines while eliminating information technology equally a land and as a threat to Russia once and for all.
It will also serve as an instance to the world of the new political reality that Russia reserves the right to defend itself, unilaterally, if demand be, and that the nation with the most powerful war machine in the world also has the political will to apply it, if information technology has no other choice and if it is forced to defend itself. This scenario has the best hope of long-term stability for the region, and fifty-fifty the possibility of a hereafter re-integration of some parts of central Ukraine with Novorussia.
Unfortunately, the vast bulk of war criminals would probably escape to the West, at to the lowest degree for a while.
3) The tertiary plan, the Kyiv Plan, would exist to go to Kyiv, which may or may not involve engaging in a major war. In the best example scenario for Russia, the U.S. and NATO would desert Ukraine in the face up of a existent fight and leave them on their ain. Fifty-fifty if Ukraine did not capitulate in the outset few hours, any actual conflict could be finished in a few days, and the process of de-Nazification and war law-breaking trials could begin. In an alternative scenario, the U.Southward. and NATO would launch air strikes and the war could devolve into a quagmire for Russian federation, with the risk of nuclear war intensifying.
My belief is that the outcome of the open combat phase of the state of war would be along the lines of the Start Iraq War, (with 80% – 90% of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering without firing a shot) only the subsequent "occupation" would really be a existent liberation. With the removal of neo-Nazis and corrupt oligarchs from positions of power, and the comeback of life quality and life chances for a vast majority of the population, most Ukrainians (with the exception of the rabid fascists in Galicia or Poland) volition see the Russian Ground forces as their grandparents saw the Red Regular army, as heroes and liberators from foreign occupation—which is exactly what they would be.
This may exist the least viable and least attractive of the three scenarios, only it is an option, and information technology would have the required outcome of stopping the war crimes against Russian citizens and eliminating Ukraine every bit an existential threat correct on Russia's doorstep. It would also have the do good of the capture a big percentage of state of war criminals (Ukrainian and otherwise) too as documents and evidence that might exist of corking interest to history, Russian federation and the globe—an option worthy of serious consideration.
Of all iii of these plans, the 2nd, the Novorussia Plan has the most do good at the least cost. Only going to the contact line in Donbass is not sufficient to resolve the festering Ukrainian trouble, and going all the way to Kyiv may well cost more than it is worth. The Novorussia Plan resolves all critical issues at an adequate cost, and can exist implemented, if demand be, equally a 2d phase of the Donbass Plan.
With the Voronezh troops coming in through (or around) Kharkov, Airborne and amphibious troops landing in (or around) Odessa, the Rostov Army coming up through Donbass, and the Crimean Ground forces and Blackness Ocean Fleet working along the declension, forth with the Bryansk Army waiting in reserve and fix to take Kyiv if required, the 700 Km Front end, running from Kharkov to Odessa could be formed and held in a matter of days.
In one case Russian fuel and human aid beginning to flow to liberated Novorussia, grateful citizens will not only not oppose Russian "occupation," they will support information technology as genuine liberation, and even be fix to defend it themselves from the cold and hungry Ukrainians who will be begging to exist allowed to immigrate to Novorussia.
Incorrigible Nazis and war criminals will exist rounded upward, tried, and sentenced to work battalions in Donbass, to repair every unmarried thing destroyed or damaged in the state of war, including the monument at Saur Mogila and all monuments to the Red Army Liberators in the newly liberated lands of Novorussia. The majority of Russian soldiers will quickly be gratuitous to return to Russia, and leave the assistants and protection of the newly liberated lands to their inhabitants.
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Russians visiting Saur Mogila memorial to red Ground forces soldiers who liberated Donetsk from the Nazis in World State of war I. [Source: inthefray.org] -
Separatist flags wing over ruins. [Source: inthefray.org]
Vladimir Putin has more than once recounted a lesson that he learned as a youth on the tough streets of Leningrad."If the fight is inevitable, it is best to strike first."
If state of war indeed breaks out, the master responsibility would balance with the U.S. which triggered the electric current mess through its sponsorship of the February 2014 insurrection in Ukraine and gave a light-green-light for Ukraine to attack its Eastern provinces.
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About the Author
Russell Bentley is a former Texan who holds passports from Russia, the USA and the Donetsk People'due south Republic.
Russell came to Donbass in 2014 and served in the VOSTOK Battalion and XAH Spetsnaz Battalion through 2015.
He then transitioned into the Information War, as a writer and video reporter, countering Western propaganda about the situation in Ukraine and Donbass.
He currently works as an accredited war correspondent in the DPR, is married and lives in a small house with a big garden, 5 Km from the frontline in the ongoing Donbass War.
Russell tin be reached at: russellbbentley@gmail.com.
Source: https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/11/12/is-biden-looking-to-reignite-a-dirty-war-in-ukraine-recent-visit-by-u-s-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raises-concerns/
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